1911 Encyclopaedia Britannica, “Thermometry” and “Meteorology”
“Fischer Instruments 115.01 115-01 Laboratory Grade Outdoor Thermometer with Human Hair Hygrometer”
Bentley, Handbook of Temperature Measurement (Horrigan, Chap. 5, Liquid-Expansion Thermometers)
Bentley, The Growth of Instrumental Meteorology, 31: 173 (1905).
Burt, The Weather Observers Handbook (2012).
Chang, “The Myth of the Boiling Point” (2007)
Facts about Non-Mercury Thermometers
Fluke, Platinum Resistance Thermometers (PRT)
Lavenuta, “Negative Temperature Coefficient Thermistors Part I: Characteristics, Materials, and Configurations”, Sensors Online (May 1, 1997)
Lemieux, Resistance versus Temperature in a Nichrome Wire (2014)
(an 11th grade science project!)
Middleton, A History of the Thermometer and Its Uses in Meteorology (1966)
Middleton, Meteorological Instruments (3d. Rev. ed. 1960).
Vogel, Glass Chemistry (2012).
Harrison, Meteorological Measurements and Instrumentation ().
JMA, Chapter 3, Measurement of Humidity
Magin, “Transition Temperatures of the Hydrates of Na2SO4, Na2HPO4 and KF as Fixed Points in Biomedical Thermometry, J. Res. Nat. Bur. Standards, 86(2):181 (Mar-Apr 1981).
Mills, The Chemical Weather Glass: Composition and Operation, Weather 63(6): 161-2 (2008).
MINCO, Resistance Thermometry
Moore, Building Scientific Apparatus (2009).
[NWSCSOM], National Weather Service, Cooperation Station Observations and Maintenance, NWS Manual 10-1315 (April 7, 2014).
[NWSRS], National Weather Service, Requirements and Standards for NWS Climate Observations, NWS Instruction 10-1302 (Nov. 14, 2014).
Patranabis, Principles of Industrial Instrumentation, 2e (2001).
Price, “The Platinum Resistance Thermometer,” Platinum Metals Rev., 3(3):78-87 (1959).
Richards, “The Transition Temperatures of Sodium Chromate as Convenient Fixed Points in Thermometry.” Proc. Amer. Acad. Arts & Sci. (USA), 47: 171 (July 1, 1911).
Ripple, Selection of Alternatives to Liquid-in-Glass Thermometers, J. ASTM Intl 2, JAI3404 (2005).
Robens, Balances: Instruments, Manufacturers, History (2013).
Schwartz, “Mythbuster: Does 10 Inches of Snow Equal 1 Inch of Rain?”
Srivastava, Surface Meteorological Instruments and Measurement Practices (2009).
Strangeways, A History of Rain Gauges, Weather, 65(5): 132 (May 2010).
Thermoworks, Basic Thermometry Concepts: Accuracy
Trowbridge, The Use of the Hair Hygrometer, Sciences, New Series, 4(81): 62-65 (Jul. 17, 1896).
Wiederhold, Water Vapor Measurement: Methods and Instrumentation
Zuidervaart, An Eighteenth-Century Medical-Meteorological Society in the Netherlands: An Investigation of Early Organization, Instrumentation and Quantification. Part 2, British Journal for the History of Science, Vol. 39, No. 1 (Mar., 2006), pp. 49-66 .
Bibliography, part 2
Brombacher, Mercury Barometers and Manometers, National Bureau of Standards Monograph 8 (1960).
Choon, Development of Low Wind Speed Anemometer, Int. J. Adv. Sci. Eng’g Info. Technol., 2(3): 39-42 (2012).
De Villiers, Windswept: The Story of Wind and Weather (2009).
Fischer Precision Aneroid Barometer
claimed an accuracy of 0.02 inches mercury.
Frenzen, Fast-Response Cup Anemometer Features Cosine Response (1968).
Hamden, “NiSpan C 902”
Huler, Defining the Wind: The Beaufort Scale and How a 19th-Century Admiral Turned Science into Poetry (2007).
Hunter, Wind Speed Measurement and Use of Cup Anemometry (2003).
Keele, Leonardo da Vinci’s Elements of the Science of Man (2014).
Kristensen, The Perennial CUp Anemometer, Wind Energ., 2: 59-75 (1999).
McClung, History of the Barometer: Part 3: The Aneroid Barometer is the Choice of Today’s Weather Watchers (2011)
Middleton, The History of the Barometer (1964).
[MiddletonMI] Middleton, Meteorological Instruments (3rd rev. ed. 1960).
Middleton, A Short History of the Barometer
NEWMOA, IMERC Fact Sheet: Mercury Use in Measuring Devices (Jan. 2010).
NMLA (National Meteorological Library and Archive), Fact Sheet 6 — The Beaufort Scale
NPL, “How do I adjust my barometer? (FAQ – Pressure)”
NWS, JetStream Max: Beaufort Wind Force Scale
Peterson, The Jefferson Image in the American Mind (1960).
Pindado, On Cup Anemometer Rotor Aerodynamics, Sensors (Basel). 2012; 12(5): 6198–6217.
Pope, Life in Nelson’s Navy (1987).
Srivastava, Surface Meteorological Instruments and Measurement Practices.
Streever, And Soon I Heard a Roaring Wind: A Natural History of Moving Air (2016).
UQ Physics Museum, 294 – Fortin Mercury Barometer
Zittel, Philosophies of Technology: Francis Bacon and his Contemporaries (2008).
Notes for parts 3 and 4
1) Lynch also converted the ENIAC program to Java ME and ran it on a Nokia 6300 smartphone. “PHONIAC exected the main loop … in less than one second.” (LynchPHONIAC). Lynch comments that the Nokia 630 runs at 237 MHz, with one million instructions per second, and that one instruction translates to one floating point operation, so its peak speed is 237 MFLOPS. He also indicates that making full use of its vector features, the 1976 CRAY-1 supercomputer (80 MHz) peaked at 250 MFLOPS. (70 MFLOPS per Collier 13; 80, Chopra 298).)
2) While Richardson’s 1922 six hour “forecast” was done originally by hand, there have been reanalyses by computer. Richardson looked at conditions over Central Europe. for May 20, 1910. At that time, upper air observations were made only intermittently, but there were 12 soundings and 18 reports of upper level winds. Bjerknes used these to prepare charts of height at ten standard pressure levels. Richardson divided the atmosphere into five layers (centered at 100, 300, 500, 700, 900 hPa), and the horizontal grid points were separated by 3 degrees longitude and 1.8 degrees latitude.
The reanalysis omitted many terms which, with the benefit of hindsight, are known to be marginal. On the other hand, it used a digital filter to avoid Richardson’s initialization problems.
3) Lorenz (of “butterfly effect” fame) considered empirical forecasting based on a multiple regression analysis of an entire pressure field grid. Of course, even if the grid were just 96 cells, that would mean 96 degrees of freedom and the regression model would not fare well. Lorenz therefore simplified the picture by approximating the pressure field with a sum of “orthogonal functions.” For a field of 64 stations in the USA, he found that he could account for 91% of the variation with eight matrix functions. Sine waves are orthogonal and a Grantville scientist might try using a sum of sine waves of different phase, amplitude and wavelength (a Fourier series) for this purpose.
4) Assumptions for modeling the vertical ascent rate of a balloon: no vertical current or extrinsic turbulence, the aerodynamic drag force is proportional to the air density, the balloon’s cross-sectional area and the square of its vertical velocity, the mass of the balloon envelope negligible, the cross-sectional area proportional to the 2/3 power of the volume (as for a sphere), the lift gas follows the ideal gas law, and internal temperature and pressure equal to ambient, and the atmosphere follows the international standard atmosphere.
However, there are lots of small deviations from the idealized picture:
–despite this increase in theoretical speed, the Reynolds number decreases, and at some altitude there is a transition from turbulent flow to laminar flow, and a consequent increase in the drag coefficient (Gallice). The Reynolds number is the density * velocity * length in flow direction, all divided by the dynamic viscosity. The length changes as the balloon expands. The density and viscosity both change with altitude; density with both temperature and pressure and viscosity mostly with temperature.
–The lift gas is cooled by adiabatic expansion at a faster rate than the ambient air. On the other hand, it is warmed by convection and radiation. (Yajima).
–Speed can be affected by vertical air currents, inflation pressure, and turbulence in the lower atmosphere (MiddletonMB 172).
5) Polyethylene envelopes may be needed for probing the atmosphere above 38 km (Kumar) but polyethylene is not likely to be available in the 1630s, see Cooper, Industrial Alchemy part 5.
6) The grid resolution of some of the early NWP models was chosen because of the limitations of period line printers (10 print characters per inch and six lines per inch). With a resolution of 381 km, if the map scale was 1:10,000,000, the output distance between grid points was 1.5 inches, and thus each grid point corresponded to a print point. The same was true for a grid resolution of 254 km (1 inch distance) or 127 km (0.5 inch distance).( Lynch2006, 197).
7) Bartlett (1906) correlated precipitation, pressure, temperature, and 24 hour changes with the weather 24 hours later further east, and came up with “specimen rules” such as “A general rise of temperature in the Dakotas, amounting to 6o or more, accompanied by rain in the Southwest (Oklahoma and Kansas” indicates rain either the next night or the following day” in Wisconsin.
8) Strictly speaking, a barotropic atmosphere is one in which density varies only with pressure, there is no horizontal temperature gradient. The tropics tend to be close to barotropic. If there is a temperature gradient, the atmosphere is baroclinic. An equivalent barotropic atmosphere is baroclinic, but the isotherms are parallel to the isoheights, and hence the wind increases in strength with height, but does not change direction.
Bibliography — Numerical Weather Prediction in Part 4
MFLOPS(1) Weightings: FADD 40.4%, FSUB 23.1%, FMUL 26.9%, FDIV 9.6%.
Charney, On a Physical Basis for Numerical Prediction of Large-Scale Motions in the Atmosphere, J. Meteorology, 5(5): 371-85 (Dec. 1949).
Charney, Numerical Integration of the Barotropic Vorticity Equation, Tellus 2(4): 237-54 (Nov. 1950).
Chopra, Advanced Computer Architecture (2008).
Coen, Vienna in the Age of Uncertainty: Science, Liberalism, and Private Life (2007)
Collier, Fundamentals of Numerical Weather Prediction (2011).
Copplin, An Illustrated History of Computers: Part 4 (2002)
Dulakov, “Konrad Zuse—the first relay computer”
Edwards, A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming (2010).
Evans, Introduction to Numerical Weather Prediction (8 Sept. 2015).
Fishman, The Weather Revolution: Innovations and Imminent Breakthroughs in Accurate Forecasting (2013).
Frank, “An APL poisson solver”
Fjortoft, On a Numerical Method of Integrating the Barotropic Vorticity Equation, Tellus 4(3): 179-194 (Aug. 1952).
Golding, The history and future of numerical weather prediction in the Met Office (2004).
Haigh, ENIAC in Action: Making and Remaking the Modern Computer ().
Harper, “IBM 7090/94 Architecture”
Longbottom, “Whetstone Benchmark History and Results”
Madaus,”Global Spectral Barotropic Model Forecasts” (2011)
Lynch, “Richardson’s Forecast: What Went Wrong?,” Symposium on the 50th Anniversary of
Operational Numerical Weather Prediction (University of Maryland, College Park, MD
14–17 June, 2004.)
[LynchVAIO] Lynch, The ENIAC Forecasts: A Re-creation, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc’y 46-55 (Jan. 2008).
[LynchPHONIAC] Lynch, “Forecasts by PHONIAC”, Weather, 63(11):324-6 (Nov. 2008).
Lynch, Richardson’s Marvelous Forecast,
[LynchRD] Lynch, The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction: Richardson’s Dream (2006).
[Lynch2008] Lynch, The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling, J. Computational Physics 227: 3431-44 (2008).
Lynch, The Prehistory of Numerical Weather Prediction: Some Austrian Contributions (2015)
Munaffo, “Computer History”
(PowerPC 601: 17.5 MFLOPS)
Pearce, Meteorology at the Millenium (2005).
Phillips, The Start of Numerical Weather Prediction in the United States (1999)
Platzman, “The ENIAC Computations of 1950–Gateway to Numerical Weather Prediction,” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc’y, 60(4): 302-12 (April 1979).
Shuman, Numerical Weather Prediction (1978).
Shuman, Weather Prediction (1979).
Shuman, “History of Numerical Weather Prediction at the National Meteorological Center,” Weather and Forecasting, 4: 286 (Sept. 1989).
Simpson, Syllabus for Atmospheric Dynamics (2010)
Sinha, Computational Weather Modeling
van den Heever, Numerical Weather Prediction
Weik, The ENIAC Story (1961)
Wicker, Everything you need to know: Numerical Weather Prediction in about 100 minutes (2013).
General Bibliography for parts 3 and 4
VipulNaik, “Lessons from weather forecasting and its history for forecasting as a domain “
Aillot, Stochastic Weather Generators: An overview of Weather Type Models (2015)
Airships.net, “Control Car, Flight Instruments, and Flight Controls “
Anderson, Predicting the Weather: Victorians and the Science of Meteorology (2005).
Bartlett, “The Study of Practise Forecasting,” Monthly Weather Rev. 523-6 (Nov. 1906)
Blair, Weather Elements (1957).
Bluestein, Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology in Midlatitudes, vol. I (1992).
Bowditch, The American Practical Navigator: An Epitome of Navigation (National Imagery and Mapping Agency, 2002 Bicentennial Edition)
Brettle, “Back to Basics: Radiosondes: Part 1 — The Instrument,” Weather 57: (Sept. 2003)
Burton, Scott’s last expedition: the upper air observations, Weather, 61(9): 250-3 (Sept. 2006)
Camuffo, “The earliest temperature observations in the world: The Medici Network (1654-1670),” Climatic Change, July 2012, 111:335-363.
Chapman and Maloney, Chapman Piloting, Seamanship and Boat Handling (63rd ed 1999).
Charleton-Perez, Lewis Fry Richardson’s Forecast Factory — for Real,” Weather 66(2): 52-54 (Feb. 2011).
Crewe, The fathers of scientific meteorology — Boyle, Wren, Hooke and Halley: Part 2,” Weather 58: 135-139 (April 2003).
Cornes, Early Meteorological Data from London and Paris: Extending the North Atlantic Oscillation Series, Ph.D. Thesis (University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, May 2010).
Cortesi, Analogues and Weather Typing: Downscaling Methods (2014)
De Decker, “Email in the 18th century: the optical telegraph”
Denny, Making Sense of Weather and Climate (2017).
[DennyWB] Denny, “Weather Balloon Ascent Rate,” The Physics Teacher, 54: 255-7 (2016).
Dick, The Golden Age of the Great Passenger Airships: Graf Zeppelin and Hindenburg (2014).
Doswell, Probabilistic Forecasting – A Primer
Draghici, Detailed Syllabus Examples for Initial Formation and Specialisation of Meteorological Personnel (WMO 2001).
Draper, “The Sonic Altimeter for Aircraft,” NACA Technical Note 611 (1937)
Egerton, A History of the Ecological Sciences, Part 16: Robert Hooke and the Royal Society of London, Bull. Ecological Soc’y Amer. 93-101 (April 2005).
Emminger, History of Weather Forecasting
Exner, A First Approach Towards Calculating Synoptic Forecast Charts, originally published in German in Meteorologische Zeitschrift 25 (1908), reprinted with English translation in Irish Meteorological Sercvice, 1, Historical Note, 1995, 1995-02, 1995
Fitzroy, Barometer and Weather Guide (1859)
Fleming, Inventing Atmospheric Science (2016).
Fleming, Meteorology in America, 1800-1870 (1990).
Gallice, “Modeling the ascent of sounding balloons: derivation of the vertical air motion,” Atmos. Meas. Tech. 4: 2235-53 (2011).
Gold, Aids to Forecasting: Types of Pressure Distribution, with notes and tables for the fourteen years 1905-1918 (British Air Ministry, Meteorological Office, Geophysical Memoirs No. 16, 1920).
Gribbins, Fitzroy (2003).
Hary, Atmospheric Blocking
Jones, The Development of Lamb Weather types: from subjective analysis of weather charts to objective approaches using Reanalyses,
Kaymont Balloons, Weather Forecasting
Lee, Weather Wisdom (1976).
Lorenz, Empirical Orthogonal Functions and Statistical Weather Prediction (1956).
Kumar, Development of Ultra-Thin Polyethylene Balloons for High Altitude Research Up to Mesosphere, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1408.4250
Lund, Map-Pattern Classification by Statistical Methods, J. Appl. Meteorol., 2: 56-65 (1963).
LTP, “Designing a High Altitude Balloon”
Ma, Supplement of Tropospheric aerosol scattering and absorption over central Europe: a closure study for the dry particle state, 14, 6241–6259, 2014
McNamara, An Analysis of Burst Altitude for Weather Balloons,(2016). Antonian Scholars Honors Program. 43.
Middleton, Meteorological Instruments (Rev. 3d ed. 1960).
Miller, A Revised Technique for Forecasting Hurricane Movement by Statistical Methods, Monthly Weather Rev. 96(8): 540 (Aug. 1968).
Monmonier, Air Apparent (1999).
Moore, Weather Experiment: The Pioneers Who SOught to See the Future (2015).
[NAVEDTRA10363] Naval Education and Training Command, Aerographer’s Mate 3 & 2, Rate Training Manual and Nonresident Career Course, NAVEDTRA-10363-E (1976).
[NAVEDTRA 14010] Naval Education and Training Command, Aerographer’s Mate 1 & C, Non-Resident Training Course (2003).
[NWSSSP] National Weather Service, Sample Station Plot
[paloverdes], “Description of the IBM 704”
Perry, The Lamb Weather Type Catalog, Weather, 53(7):222 (2012)
Pfister, Daily Weather Observations in Sixteenth-Century Europe, Climatic Change 43: 111-150 (1999).
Philipp, Cost733cat – A database of weather and circulation type classifications, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth xxx (2010) xxx–xxx.
[plotmanual] Meteorology and AIr Quality Group, Wageningen University, Plot Manual
Pretor-Pinney, Cloudspotter’s Guide: The Science, History, and Culture of Clouds (2006).
[PSA] Peak Soaring Association, Pilot Exam Notes Meteorology (1997).
Reed, On the Practical use of Graphical Prediction Methods, Monthly Weather Review 209 (June 1960).
Robinson, Meteorological Kites; Scientific Kites of the Industrial Revolution
Stegman, Weather Communication Codes
uk.sci.weather, Weather FAQs
Vogel, “The Quicksilver Experiment:” and the Establishment of Tabular Data Recording in Early Instrumental Weather Observation
Ward, Practical Exercises in Elementary Meteorology (1899)
Watts, Weather Handbook (1994).
Wilks, “The Weather Generation Game: A Review of Stochastic Weather Models,” Progr. Phys. Geogr. 23(3): 329-57 (1999).
Wilks, Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences (1995).
Wing, Extratropical Storm Tracks (2009).
Yajima, Scientific Ballooning (2009) ( Chapter 2, Engineering Fundamentals of Balloons).
Yiou, “AnaWEGE: a weather generator based on analogues of atmospheric circulation,” Geosci. Model Dev., 7: 531-43 (2014).
Chapter 13 – Weather Forecasting